COMMENTARY | In what is becoming a habit with polling leading up to the Iowa Caucus, surveys among likely voters in the state this week placed yet another Republican candidate at the top of the heap. Rasmussen Reports released polls Thursday in advance of the final Republican debate in Iowa showing Mitt Romney appears to have taken the lead in the state. It is the fifth month in a row polls have shown a different candidate leading in Iowa.
All of this has led to speculation among political analysts, including the Associated Press' Charles Babington, that the Republican primary season will look more like a marathon than a sprint. The Republican debate on Thursday did little to dispel this notion, as Newt Gingrich and Romney conducted themselves well and managed to look mostly at-ease with their positions on the issues.
The Influence of the Peripheral Candidates
While the fact they are both in single-digits in national polls conducted by Real Clear Politics makes it unlikely Michele Bachmann or Jon Huntsman will win the Republican nomination, they can have an impact on who does.
Bachmann is being given partial credit by Slate's John Dickerson and others for putting a dent in Gingrich during the debate. While Romney stuck mostly to outlining his position on issues, Bachmann doggedly challenged Gingrich on his work with Freddie Mac. This prompted a fairly lengthy explanation from Gingrich on the difference between being a political lobbyist and a consultant, which did him no favors.
Huntsman, by contrast, looks to be shaping up to be an influence in the New Hampshire race, according to the National Journal and a poll conducted by Suffolk University/WHDH-TV. That survey places Romney in the lead with 38 percent vs. Gingrich's 20 percent. What is important for both candidates' chances, however, is the rise of Huntsman, who now polls at 13 percent. Independents have a strong say in New Hampshire, and this is the group Huntsman is largely appealing to, making him a factor in how January's contest plays out.
The Impact of Negative Campaigning
Gingrich admitted this week the attacks on his campaign, which have ramped up in recent weeks, might be working. The Associated Press reported Gingrich's statements, which came during a telephone town hall event. Gingrich has defended himself, saying that the attacks are not based in fact, but given polling in Iowa, it's obvious that they're effective.
Romney's campaign has been at the center of the attacks as Gingrich's position in the polls has begun to rise, and he has been the one to see the most benefit from Gingrich's slight decline. The candidate has mostly begun to avoid saying anything negative about Gingrich in person, to appear more issue-focused, a tactic he employed at the debate in Iowa as well.
The Los Angeles Times reported that Romney continued to focus on his political positions during campaign stops in both Iowa and South Carolina on Friday.
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